STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE DYNAMICS OF COTTON YIELD IN THE NAMANGAN REGION OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
Keywords:
discrete, dynamic, series, trend, seasonality, component, linear, hypothesis, autocorrelation, asymmetry, kurtosisAbstract
Observations changing over time, conducted in an ordered sequence, are called a time series. In the article, the statistical regularity of the series of dynamics is studied - the average cotton yield in the Namangan region of the Republic of Uzbekistan (according to the data provided by the Central Statistical Office of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 1991-2018); the study was conducted using the method of statistical analysis of time series. Point and interval estimates for the average cotton yield were constructed, with a 95% guarantee, explicit trends were identified, and yield in the region was predicted for subsequent years. It was found, using the statistical Durbin-Watson tests, that the average cotton yield in the region has an autocorrelation relationship.
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